The most important metallurgical coal basin in the world is underwater. Open pits have become lakes, stockpiles are soaked, and rail lines are submerged... and, in places, destroyed. Damage is estimated at $5 to $6 billion.
Australia accounts for almost two-thirds of global coking coal production. Much of it comes from Queensland, where an area the size of France and Germany combined is underwater. That includes the Bowen Basin coal region, which produces almost a third of the world's coking coal. The Bowen Basin was hit with 350 mm of rain in December, against an average of 102 mm.
Floods are now receding from the Bowen, giving some miners an opportunity to ship from existing stockpiles. Other mines are still inaccessible, and several rail lines are still submerged or damaged. And since open pits are still flooded and will take weeks to drain, shipping from stockpiles only postpones the inevitable: a reduction in met coal supply. Analysts think a recovery to pre-flood coal production levels will take at least three months.
At least six major global coal miners have declared force majeure, which means they can miss contractual shipments because of circumstances out of their control. The list includes Anglo American, Aquila Resources, BHP Billiton, Macarthur Coal, Rio Tinto, Vale, and Xstrata. Mines responsible for between 100 and 140 million tons of annual coking coal production are now under force majeure, representing as much as 40% of global supply.
And it's probably not over yet. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology predicts both eastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland have a 60% to 70% chance of receiving higher-than-average rainfalls between January and March 2011.
What does it mean for coal prices and coal equities?
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